Presidential Election 2012

Since the Gallup daily trending polls have been down due to hurricane Sandy, there is no way to track the election.  Other polls are not as reliable as Gallup.  A couple of weeks ago I, after having had a look at the Gallup polls, predicted that we would have a new president on election day.  Gallup, for this election, has changed their sampling data form registered voters to likely voters.  since doing this Gallup has had Romney as the winner by a clear margin.  The other pools who still use registered voters all have the election too close to call.

I have not looked at how Gallup is ding their sampling, but I trust that they are on to something, even though the pother pollsters and pundits alike indicate Gallup is making a mistake.  Well come November 6, we will know.  Romney will win by a large margin in the electoral college, and those who predict the election as close or to close to call will all be using the Gallup method of selecting likely voters over registered voters.

Michael Luciano has Obama winning 290 to 243 primarily using Rasmussen data.

http://www.policymic.com/articles/18219/electoral-college-map-live-presidential-and-senate-polls-projections-and-analysis

Real Clear Politics has Obama up 201 to 191.  With their final look.

http://newmexico.watchdog.org/16469/our-final-look-at-the-electoral-college-map-before-election-day-obama-leads-romney-201-191-11-states-toss-ups/

This poll has the following states still in play

Colorado (9 Electoral College votes) Obama +0.6

Florida (29) Romney +1.4

Iowa (6) Obama +3.0

Michigan (16) Obama +3.8

Nevada (6) Obama +2.8

New Hampshire (4) Obama +1.5

North Carolina (15) Romney +3.8

Ohio (18) Obama +2.8

Pennsylvania (20) Obama +3.9

Virginia (13) Romney +0.3

Wisconsin (10) Obama +4.2

According to this poll we must give Obama Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  While giving Romney North Carolina.  So that gives Obama 242 and Romney 206 electors. 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Business insider has Obama winning 

http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-romney-electoral-college-map-reuters-poll-ipsos-2012-10

Simon Jackman at Huffington Post has Obama winning with Obama at 277 and Romney coming in with 206.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/simon-jackman/election-polls_b_2069788.html

Now Jackman's article also says the following:

Gallup's tracking has been down since Sandy hit the East Coast, and Pollster readers will recall that Gallup was showing sizeable leads for Romney with quite large weekly sample sizes (2,700 LVs).

I will go with Gallup, Romney will win and win big.  why because their new sampling model is more refined and reliable.  I already called the election for Romney two weeks ago.

What do you think?  Come Tuesday will i be eating my words?